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| Demographic || Economic || Political || Cultural || Natural || Technological |monobar.gif (1022 bytes)

oranlogo.gif (4389 bytes) The Natural Environment
Raw Materials

Think of the capacity of fiber as if it were infinite. We literally do not know how many bits per second we can send down a fiber. Recent research results indicate that we are close to being able to deliver 1,000 billion bits per second. This means that a fiber the size of a human hair can deliver every issue ever made of the Wall Street Journal in less than a second. Transmitting data at that speed, a fiber can deliver a million channels of television concurrently -- roughly two hundred thousand times faster than twisted pair. That is a big jump. And mind you, I am talking about a single fiber, so if you want more, you just make more.
It is, after all, just
sand.

Nicholas Negroponte, Being Digital, Alfred Knopf, 1995, p. 23

In Industrial societies, the need for raw materials leads to:

opinp.gif (941 bytes) land rushes
opinp.gif (941 bytes) boundary disputes
opinp.gif (941 bytes) colonialism
opinp.gif (941 bytes) world wars

To say nothing of fostering greed and motivating murder. Shortages of raw materials increase demand and sprout counter-movements aimed at conservation (e.g. the "Green" movement).

The marketing arm of industry has historically consumed far fewer raw materials than production.

In a knowledge economy, ideas are the raw materials. Schools are the factories, libraries are the farms, and mind share is the territory. I don't think we can do anything about greed and murder, but I'm pretty sure in a knowledge economy, the number of civil lawsuits rises. People will dispute rights rather than land. They'll steal ideas rather than things.

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Energy

The cost of energy makes long-term growth of high energy industries and goods difficult to predict. Much of that energy is used to produce goods and services. But much is used to distribute them, too.

What are the evergy implications of Nick Negroponte's observation about fiber opics above? In a knowledge economy,

opinp.gif (941 bytes) an office of thinkers uses less energy than a steel plant adding an equivalent amount to the GNP
opinp.gif (941 bytes) the energy used to distribute bits is trivial compared to the energy used by the trucks, trains, boats, and planes that distribute industrial products
opinp.gif (941 bytes) maintaining the electronic infrastructure uses far less energy than maintaining the highways, waterways, and airways

Pollution

Growth of industry almost always damages the natural environment. The so-called "green movement" seeks to operate businesses in such a way so as not to damage the natural environment. Their platform covers two dozen areas from agriculture to water. International marketers must consider the varying political power of "greens" in different countries.greenlogo.gif (6099 bytes)

For example, the All-Russian Society for Environmental Protection / Sverdlovsk Regional Council - Green Movement Association bills inself as "the greatest and oldest non-government ecological organization in Sverdlovsk Oblast." That's their logo on the right. The Association was founded in 1924 and a wise marketer might take them into account before penetrating too far into the Middle Urals.

Growth of knowledge hardly ever damages the natural environment. In a knowledge economy, people no longer have to live near work or school. Will people telecommute from the beach or the mountains? In that case, while they may commute less, they may drive more.

While the United States may be moving from an industrial economy to a knowledge economy, the steel still has to get made somewhere. The air there soon becomes the air here. If won't work if we condemn or penalize other companies for doing what we used to do.

Government Intervention in Natural Resource Management

Changing philosophies on the role of government in managing natural resources also blends into the legal environment. Marketers must take care in identifying natural environmental trends and take into account government regulations.

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A Regulator's Dream

A Regulator's Nightmare

The means of analog communications are specific to each application, like wires for voice, broadcast for radio, or even bicycles for newspaper delivery. Digital communications, however, by their nature, merge applications, such as voice, TV and data on a single fiber, or paging and voice on a single cellular radio system.

G. A. Keyworth, Reinventing
Competition, March 8, 1995

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last update: July 22, 2000
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